Posts Tagged ‘community solar’


Los Angeles First Graders Traveled to Sacramento to Shine Spotlight on Solar Power

May 15, 2013 at 10:00 pm
20130515-223338.jpg
blogs.gosolar.la -

Holding signs reading “I Heart Solar Power” and “Go Solar CA,” the children held back-to-back events with Sen. Kevin de León and Assemblymember Gomez to rally for solar power, clean air, and environmental responsibility. Before a crowd gathered under the Capitol Rotunda, the children sang “Here Comes the Sun” and “Solar Power to the People,” conveying their vision for California, including Los Angeles, to be powered by clean energy.

Shared Renewables Bills Moving Forward In California

May 6, 2013 at 3:30 pm
blogs.gosolar.la -

A lot of people can go solar today and get a very good return on their investment, while also feeling great that they are doing something to help protect our climate, air, and water. However, many people cannot. Have a roof covered by trees? Rent your home? Live in an apartment building? You know know what I’m talking about.

California is no exemption to this problem, and with its strong and successful California Solar Initiative (CSI) sunsetting, renewable energy leaders in the state have been looking to jump to the next step of the solar revolution by making solar power (and wind power) a possibility for people in homes like those mentioned above. The effort to offer such an option is running under the name “Shared Renewables.”

Image Credit: California Shared Renewables

Image Credit: California Shared Renewables

As you can see on the interactive map on the Shared Renewables site, not many states have shared renewables laws in place, and just a handful have campaigns in place to try to enact such laws. Naturally, though, California has one law in place and has a campaign aimed at getting a much stronger one. The website for the campaign is called California Shared Renewables.

I’m not a resident of California, but I’ve been keeping up with the news there, and I’ve got some good news to share with you.

But wait, I still need to give you a little more background…. There are two bills working their way through California’s legislative process — SB 43 and AB 1014. In the end, presuming both make it through the various hurdles required, a single proposal will be hashed out. For now, though, the two bills have to take things one step at a time.

From a previous article about these bills, Silvio Marcacci writes:

If passed, SB 43 and AB 104 would allow the 75% of California utility customers who can’t install their own on-site generation to subscribe to “shared” renewable energy projects of up to 20 megawatts (MW).

Advocates say a 500MW shared renewables pilot program within the state’s three largest utility service territories would create 7,000 green jobs, earn $60 million in state sales tax revenue, generate $2 billion in economic activity, and voluntarily surpass the state’s 33% renewable portfolio standard.

A lot more details regarding the benefits of shared renewables are discussed in that post, if you want to learn more. But let’s get back to the news at hand….

This week, AB 1014 “passed though the Assembly Utility and Commerce Committee on a vote of 9-0, with no opposing testimony” (but with some significant amendments made beforehand), California Shared Renewables Policy and Market Strategies Director Tom Price informed me. Tom noted:

This is tremendously positive news. While it’s not the bill we started with, it does help us advance the goal of broadening access to renewable energy.

As an indication of the sweeping changes, and how that effected the politics, PGE asked to be the second speaker on the bill, so they could speak in favor.

The bodies speaking out in favor of the bill included:

  • Coalition for Adequate School Housing
  • US Department of Defense
  • Sonoma County Board of Supervisors
  • Vote Solar
  • Solar Energy Industries Association
  • Large Scale Solar Association
  • TURN
  • Scott Wetch/Utilities Employees Union
  • Southern California Edison

The day after this success, SB 43 also made it through a vote, this one in the California Senate Energy Committee. Vote and testimonial details are below.

Votes in favor:

  • Hill
  • DeSaulnier
  • Pavley
  • De Leon
  • Wolk
  • Corbett

Testimony in favor from:

  • California Environmental Justice Alliance
  • Vote Solar
  • League of Cities
  • Department of Defense
  • Coalition for Affordable School Housing
  • Schools Energy Coalition
  • Recurrent Energy
  • Solar Electric Industry Association
  • Large Scale Solar Association

Testimony against from:

  • Southern California Edison
  • PG&E
  • SDGE
  • TURN
  • Farm Bureau
  • Coalition of California Union Employees

“It was close, but we got the votes when it counted,” Tom noted.

“With both AB 1014 and SB 43 passed, we now have two ways to broaden the availability of renewable energy in California, and thanks to your support and help, we’ll get there.”

As stated above, each bill still has several hurdles to get past: “they need to then get through their respective Appropriations Committees, then full chambers, then pass over to the other side and go through the opposite chamber.”

The keys now are to fight for the most important details in each bill and to make more people aware of what’s going on in order to stimulate more public support for the proposals. Hence, this article.

We’ll be following up soon with discussion regarding the differences between the bills and the most important components. Stay tuned!

Shared Renewables Bills Moving Forward In California was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook (also free!), follow us on Twitter, or just visit our homepage (yep, free).

go solar today and get a very good return on their investment, while also feeling great that they are doing something to help protect our climate, air, and water. However, many people cannot. Have a roof covered by trees? Rent your home? Live in an apartment building? You know know what I’m talking about.

California is no exemption to this problem, and with its strong and successful California Solar Initiative (CSI) sunsetting, renewable energy leaders in the state have been looking to jump to the next step of the solar revolution by making solar power (and wind power) a possibility for people in homes like those mentioned above. The effort to offer such an option is running under the name “Shared Renewables.”

Image Credit: California Shared Renewables

Image Credit: California Shared Renewables

As you can see on the interactive map on the Shared Renewables site, not many states have shared renewables laws in place, and just a handful have campaigns in place to try to enact such laws. Naturally, though, California has one law in place and has a campaign aimed at getting a much stronger one. The website for the campaign is called California Shared Renewables.

I’m not a resident of California, but I’ve been keeping up with the news there, and I’ve got some good news to share with you.

But wait, I still need to give you a little more background…. There are two bills working their way through California’s legislative process — SB 43 and AB 1014. In the end, presuming both make it through the various hurdles required, a single proposal will be hashed out. For now, though, the two bills have to take things one step at a time.

From a previous article about these bills, Silvio Marcacci writes:

If passed, SB 43 and AB 104 would allow the 75% of California utility customers who can’t install their own on-site generation to subscribe to “shared” renewable energy projects of up to 20 megawatts (MW).

Advocates say a 500MW shared renewables pilot program within the state’s three largest utility service territories would create 7,000 green jobs, earn $60 million in state sales tax revenue, generate $2 billion in economic activity, and voluntarily surpass the state’s 33% renewable portfolio standard.

A lot more details regarding the benefits of shared renewables are discussed in that post, if you want to learn more. But let’s get back to the news at hand….

This week, AB 1014 “passed though the Assembly Utility and Commerce Committee on a vote of 9-0, with no opposing testimony” (but with some significant amendments made beforehand), California Shared Renewables Policy and Market Strategies Director Tom Price informed me. Tom noted:

This is tremendously positive news. While it’s not the bill we started with, it does help us advance the goal of broadening access to renewable energy.

As an indication of the sweeping changes, and how that effected the politics, PGE asked to be the second speaker on the bill, so they could speak in favor.

The bodies speaking out in favor of the bill included:

  • Coalition for Adequate School Housing
  • US Department of Defense
  • Sonoma County Board of Supervisors
  • Vote Solar
  • Solar Energy Industries Association
  • Large Scale Solar Association
  • TURN
  • Scott Wetch/Utilities Employees Union
  • Southern California Edison

The day after this success, SB 43 also made it through a vote, this one in the California Senate Energy Committee. Vote and testimonial details are below.

Votes in favor:

  • Hill
  • DeSaulnier
  • Pavley
  • De Leon
  • Wolk
  • Corbett

Testimony in favor from:

  • California Environmental Justice Alliance
  • Vote Solar
  • League of Cities
  • Department of Defense
  • Coalition for Affordable School Housing
  • Schools Energy Coalition
  • Recurrent Energy
  • Solar Electric Industry Association
  • Large Scale Solar Association

Testimony against from:

  • Southern California Edison
  • PG&E
  • SDGE
  • TURN
  • Farm Bureau
  • Coalition of California Union Employees

“It was close, but we got the votes when it counted,” Tom noted.

“With both AB 1014 and SB 43 passed, we now have two ways to broaden the availability of renewable energy in California, and thanks to your support and help, we’ll get there.”

As stated above, each bill still has several hurdles to get past: “they need to then get through their respective Appropriations Committees, then full chambers, then pass over to the other side and go through the opposite chamber.”

The keys now are to fight for the most important details in each bill and to make more people aware of what’s going on in order to stimulate more public support for the proposals. Hence, this article.

We’ll be following up soon with discussion regarding the differences between the bills and the most important components. Stay tuned!

Shared Renewables Bills Moving Forward In California was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook (also free!), follow us on Twitter, or just visit our homepage (yep, free).

" addthis:title="Shared Renewables Bills Moving Forward In California" addthis:description="

A lot of people can go solar today and get a very good return on their investment, while also feeling great that they are doing something to help protect our climate, air, and water. However, many people cannot. Have a roof covered by trees? Rent your home? Live in an apartment building? You know know what I’m talking about.

California is no exemption to this problem, and with its strong and successful California Solar Initiative (CSI) sunsetting, renewable energy leaders in the state have been looking to jump to the next step of the solar revolution by making solar power (and wind power) a possibility for people in homes like those mentioned above. The effort to offer such an option is running under the name “Shared Renewables.”

Image Credit: California Shared Renewables

Image Credit: California Shared Renewables

As you can see on the interactive map on the Shared Renewables site, not many states have shared renewables laws in place, and just a handful have campaigns in place to try to enact such laws. Naturally, though, California has one law in place and has a campaign aimed at getting a much stronger one. The website for the campaign is called California Shared Renewables.

I’m not a resident of California, but I’ve been keeping up with the news there, and I’ve got some good news to share with you.

But wait, I still need to give you a little more background…. There are two bills working their way through California’s legislative process — SB 43 and AB 1014. In the end, presuming both make it through the various hurdles required, a single proposal will be hashed out. For now, though, the two bills have to take things one step at a time.

From a previous article about these bills, Silvio Marcacci writes:

If passed, SB 43 and AB 104 would allow the 75% of California utility customers who can’t install their own on-site generation to subscribe to “shared” renewable energy projects of up to 20 megawatts (MW).

Advocates say a 500MW shared renewables pilot program within the state’s three largest utility service territories would create 7,000 green jobs, earn $60 million in state sales tax revenue, generate $2 billion in economic activity, and voluntarily surpass the state’s 33% renewable portfolio standard.

A lot more details regarding the benefits of shared renewables are discussed in that post, if you want to learn more. But let’s get back to the news at hand….

This week, AB 1014 “passed though the Assembly Utility and Commerce Committee on a vote of 9-0, with no opposing testimony” (but with some significant amendments made beforehand), California Shared Renewables Policy and Market Strategies Director Tom Price informed me. Tom noted:

This is tremendously positive news. While it’s not the bill we started with, it does help us advance the goal of broadening access to renewable energy.

As an indication of the sweeping changes, and how that effected the politics, PGE asked to be the second speaker on the bill, so they could speak in favor.

The bodies speaking out in favor of the bill included:

  • Coalition for Adequate School Housing
  • US Department of Defense
  • Sonoma County Board of Supervisors
  • Vote Solar
  • Solar Energy Industries Association
  • Large Scale Solar Association
  • TURN
  • Scott Wetch/Utilities Employees Union
  • Southern California Edison

The day after this success, SB 43 also made it through a vote, this one in the California Senate Energy Committee. Vote and testimonial details are below.

Votes in favor:

  • Hill
  • DeSaulnier
  • Pavley
  • De Leon
  • Wolk
  • Corbett

Testimony in favor from:

  • California Environmental Justice Alliance
  • Vote Solar
  • League of Cities
  • Department of Defense
  • Coalition for Affordable School Housing
  • Schools Energy Coalition
  • Recurrent Energy
  • Solar Electric Industry Association
  • Large Scale Solar Association

Testimony against from:

  • Southern California Edison
  • PG&E
  • SDGE
  • TURN
  • Farm Bureau
  • Coalition of California Union Employees

“It was close, but we got the votes when it counted,” Tom noted.

“With both AB 1014 and SB 43 passed, we now have two ways to broaden the availability of renewable energy in California, and thanks to your support and help, we’ll get there.”

As stated above, each bill still has several hurdles to get past: “they need to then get through their respective Appropriations Committees, then full chambers, then pass over to the other side and go through the opposite chamber.”

The keys now are to fight for the most important details in each bill and to make more people aware of what’s going on in order to stimulate more public support for the proposals. Hence, this article.

We’ll be following up soon with discussion regarding the differences between the bills and the most important components. Stay tuned!

Shared Renewables Bills Moving Forward In California was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook (also free!), follow us on Twitter, or just visit our homepage (yep, free).

">
No Comments »

Lancaster Mandates New Homes Must Use Solar Energy

April 23, 2013 at 10:55 pm
www.nbclosangeles.com -

Next year, every new home in Lancaster will have to produce some sort of solar energy. Most public buildings — from city halls to schools — are already outfitted with solar

Community Shared Solar Legislation Moving Forward Across America

March 15, 2013 at 7:35 pm
blogs.gosolar.la -

2013 could be the year for shared solar in the United States. Subscription model solar projects using virtual net metering (VNM) are becoming a new industry sector. Thousands of homes and businesses otherwise constrained by shade or limited space can now receive credit on their electric bills for solar power through the grid.

After the rapid growth of solar gardens in Colorado with XCEL Energy’s Solar*Rewards Community program, the idea has started to catch on with utilities and citizens groups across the country, and new legislation is being introduced. I had a chance to have a conversation with Hannah Masterjohn at the Vote Solar Initiative – we cobbled together a list of active legislation in different states. For most of these states (California, DC, Maryland, and Hawaii) this is the second attempt at community solar / VNM legislation – there is a steep learning curve for legislators and advocates alike. Some fine tuning has happened as well, as more experience is gained with the model.

California – Shared Renewable Energy Self-Generation Program, SB43 – Introduced in 2012 as SB843, this bill died in the last hours of the legislative session. The new version of the bill includes provisions for low-income individuals, requires a percentage of the subscribers to be in the same county as the solar garden, and has a carve-out for solar gardens less than 1MW in size.

Connecticut – Comprehensive Energy Strategy, Governor’s Bill 6360 – This bill allows for limited virtual net metering (say, between multiple meters of a property), and covers many different renewable technologies.

District of Columbia – Community Renewables Energy Act, B20-0057 – Establishes virtual net metering in the District. Projects up to 5 Megawatts with at least two subscribers are allowed. Unsubscribed energy credits will be distributed to users of the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). This bill explicitly adopts the Interstate Renewable Energy Council’s (IREC’s) Community Renewables Model Program Rules, which are currently being updated.

Maryland – Community Energy-Generating Facilities Pilot Program HB1128 and SB699 – Allows for biomass, solar, wind, fuel cell, or small hydropower. A three-year, 75 MW pilot program is proposed, with facilities up to 2 MW and a minimum of two subscribers.

Hawaii – Community Based Renewable Energy Act SB1330 – This offsite solar / virtual net metering bill was recently tabled in committee, likely needing further study.

Nebraska – Community Solar Gardens LB557 – Expands net metering to include community solar gardens up to 2 MW. Similar to the 2010 Colorado Community Solar Gardens Act in many ways, significant authority is handed to the Public Utilities Commission.

Washington – Renewable Energy Incentives HB1301 – This bill would make changes to the existing community solar program in Washington state. The maximum size of 75 kilowatts remains unchanged. A clean energy fund with competitive process for incentives is established, and performance standards promulgated.

If you know of community solar legislation in states besides these, please contact joy@solargardens.org and I will add this state to the list.

Many thanks,

Joy

XCEL Energy’s Solar*Rewards Community program, the idea has started to catch on with utilities and citizens groups across the country, and new legislation is being introduced. I had a chance to have a conversation with Hannah Masterjohn at the Vote Solar Initiative – we cobbled together a list of active legislation in different states. For most of these states (California, DC, Maryland, and Hawaii) this is the second attempt at community solar / VNM legislation – there is a steep learning curve for legislators and advocates alike. Some fine tuning has happened as well, as more experience is gained with the model.

California – Shared Renewable Energy Self-Generation Program, SB43 – Introduced in 2012 as SB843, this bill died in the last hours of the legislative session. The new version of the bill includes provisions for low-income individuals, requires a percentage of the subscribers to be in the same county as the solar garden, and has a carve-out for solar gardens less than 1MW in size.

Connecticut – Comprehensive Energy Strategy, Governor’s Bill 6360 – This bill allows for limited virtual net metering (say, between multiple meters of a property), and covers many different renewable technologies.

District of Columbia – Community Renewables Energy Act, B20-0057 – Establishes virtual net metering in the District. Projects up to 5 Megawatts with at least two subscribers are allowed. Unsubscribed energy credits will be distributed to users of the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). This bill explicitly adopts the Interstate Renewable Energy Council’s (IREC’s) Community Renewables Model Program Rules, which are currently being updated.

Maryland – Community Energy-Generating Facilities Pilot Program HB1128 and SB699 – Allows for biomass, solar, wind, fuel cell, or small hydropower. A three-year, 75 MW pilot program is proposed, with facilities up to 2 MW and a minimum of two subscribers.

Hawaii – Community Based Renewable Energy Act SB1330 – This offsite solar / virtual net metering bill was recently tabled in committee, likely needing further study.

Nebraska – Community Solar Gardens LB557 – Expands net metering to include community solar gardens up to 2 MW. Similar to the 2010 Colorado Community Solar Gardens Act in many ways, significant authority is handed to the Public Utilities Commission.

Washington – Renewable Energy Incentives HB1301 – This bill would make changes to the existing community solar program in Washington state. The maximum size of 75 kilowatts remains unchanged. A clean energy fund with competitive process for incentives is established, and performance standards promulgated.

If you know of community solar legislation in states besides these, please contact joy@solargardens.org and I will add this state to the list.

Many thanks,

Joy

" addthis:title="Community Shared Solar Legislation Moving Forward Across America" addthis:description="

2013 could be the year for shared solar in the United States. Subscription model solar projects using virtual net metering (VNM) are becoming a new industry sector. Thousands of homes and businesses otherwise constrained by shade or limited space can now receive credit on their electric bills for solar power through the grid.

After the rapid growth of solar gardens in Colorado with XCEL Energy’s Solar*Rewards Community program, the idea has started to catch on with utilities and citizens groups across the country, and new legislation is being introduced. I had a chance to have a conversation with Hannah Masterjohn at the Vote Solar Initiative – we cobbled together a list of active legislation in different states. For most of these states (California, DC, Maryland, and Hawaii) this is the second attempt at community solar / VNM legislation – there is a steep learning curve for legislators and advocates alike. Some fine tuning has happened as well, as more experience is gained with the model.

California – Shared Renewable Energy Self-Generation Program, SB43 – Introduced in 2012 as SB843, this bill died in the last hours of the legislative session. The new version of the bill includes provisions for low-income individuals, requires a percentage of the subscribers to be in the same county as the solar garden, and has a carve-out for solar gardens less than 1MW in size.

Connecticut – Comprehensive Energy Strategy, Governor’s Bill 6360 – This bill allows for limited virtual net metering (say, between multiple meters of a property), and covers many different renewable technologies.

District of Columbia – Community Renewables Energy Act, B20-0057 – Establishes virtual net metering in the District. Projects up to 5 Megawatts with at least two subscribers are allowed. Unsubscribed energy credits will be distributed to users of the Low Income Housing Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). This bill explicitly adopts the Interstate Renewable Energy Council’s (IREC’s) Community Renewables Model Program Rules, which are currently being updated.

Maryland – Community Energy-Generating Facilities Pilot Program HB1128 and SB699 – Allows for biomass, solar, wind, fuel cell, or small hydropower. A three-year, 75 MW pilot program is proposed, with facilities up to 2 MW and a minimum of two subscribers.

Hawaii – Community Based Renewable Energy Act SB1330 – This offsite solar / virtual net metering bill was recently tabled in committee, likely needing further study.

Nebraska – Community Solar Gardens LB557 – Expands net metering to include community solar gardens up to 2 MW. Similar to the 2010 Colorado Community Solar Gardens Act in many ways, significant authority is handed to the Public Utilities Commission.

Washington – Renewable Energy Incentives HB1301 – This bill would make changes to the existing community solar program in Washington state. The maximum size of 75 kilowatts remains unchanged. A clean energy fund with competitive process for incentives is established, and performance standards promulgated.

If you know of community solar legislation in states besides these, please contact joy@solargardens.org and I will add this state to the list.

Many thanks,

Joy

">
No Comments »

Sunny times for solar power, except in L.A.

March 14, 2013 at 2:59 pm
www.latimes.com -

Still skeptical about solar power — and especially about the wisdom of installing panels on your own rooftop? One can hardly be blamed, given horror stories about the difficulties in getting assistance from local utilities such as the L.A. Department …

Solar Party with Mar Vista Mom This Saturday March 16

March 13, 2013 at 8:25 pm
marvistamom.com -

solarThis Saturday, March 16th, from 2-4pm, I will be hosting a Solar Party with Tom Folan of SolarCity!

Think “Tupperware”, but instead of small plastic bowls with lids, it’s all about these big panels that sit on your roof and generate electricity from the Sun.

No pressure, no sales craziness, just information about SolarCity, the panels I have on my roof, and how it’s all worked out for me and my family.

Which is great, by the way!

SolarCity installed panels on my roof over 3 years ago, and they’ve been producing clean electricity ever since. I opted for the Solar Lease, which meant no money down and I pay a fixed rate for 20 years. (Well, 17 more years, since the lease is now 3 years old… But you get the point.)

So when DWP raises electricity rates, it won’t affect my payment. I am locked in.

You could also opt to purchase the system outright, like a bunch of my friends did, and there are financing plans available that SolarCity can tell you all about on Saturday. All kinds of options are available.

So if you’re interested, RSVP at Sarah@MarVistaMom.com and we’ll take it from there.

P.S. There will be snacks!

solar flyer no addy copy

The post Solar Party w/ SolarCity & Mar Vista Mom This Saturday March 16 appeared first on Mar Vista Mom.

solarThis Saturday, March 16th, from 2-4pm, I will be hosting a Solar Party with Tom Folan of SolarCity!

Think “Tupperware”, but instead of small plastic bowls with lids, it’s all about these big panels that sit on your roof and generate electricity from the Sun.

No pressure, no sales craziness, just information about SolarCity, the panels I have on my roof, and how it’s all worked out for me and my family.

Which is great, by the way!

SolarCity installed panels on my roof over 3 years ago, and they’ve been producing clean electricity ever since. I opted for the Solar Lease, which meant no money down and I pay a fixed rate for 20 years. (Well, 17 more years, since the lease is now 3 years old… But you get the point.)

So when DWP raises electricity rates, it won’t affect my payment. I am locked in.

You could also opt to purchase the system outright, like a bunch of my friends did, and there are financing plans available that SolarCity can tell you all about on Saturday. All kinds of options are available.

So if you’re interested, RSVP at Sarah@MarVistaMom.com and we’ll take it from there.

P.S. There will be snacks!

solar flyer no addy copy

The post Solar Party w/ SolarCity & Mar Vista Mom This Saturday March 16 appeared first on Mar Vista Mom.

" addthis:title="Solar Party with Mar Vista Mom This Saturday March 16" addthis:description="

solarThis Saturday, March 16th, from 2-4pm, I will be hosting a Solar Party with Tom Folan of SolarCity!

Think “Tupperware”, but instead of small plastic bowls with lids, it’s all about these big panels that sit on your roof and generate electricity from the Sun.

No pressure, no sales craziness, just information about SolarCity, the panels I have on my roof, and how it’s all worked out for me and my family.

Which is great, by the way!

SolarCity installed panels on my roof over 3 years ago, and they’ve been producing clean electricity ever since. I opted for the Solar Lease, which meant no money down and I pay a fixed rate for 20 years. (Well, 17 more years, since the lease is now 3 years old… But you get the point.)

So when DWP raises electricity rates, it won’t affect my payment. I am locked in.

You could also opt to purchase the system outright, like a bunch of my friends did, and there are financing plans available that SolarCity can tell you all about on Saturday. All kinds of options are available.

So if you’re interested, RSVP at Sarah@MarVistaMom.com and we’ll take it from there.

P.S. There will be snacks!

solar flyer no addy copy

The post Solar Party w/ SolarCity & Mar Vista Mom This Saturday March 16 appeared first on Mar Vista Mom.

">
No Comments »

Rooftop Solar Is Unstoppable

February 23, 2013 at 6:50 am
Germany rooftop solar price parity
blogs.gosolar.la -

The fundamental transformation of energy markets brought about by the growing incursions of renewables such as wind and solar has been underlined in a new report by the European energy analysts at Macquarie Group, who have concluded that the plunge in costs for rooftop solar PV has fallen to such an extent that its continued rapid deployment may be unstoppable.

In an analysis that broadly reflects the conclusion of UBS energy analysts about how rooftop solar PV is heralding an energy revolution, Macquarie notes that many existing fossil fuel generators in Germany are losing money and could go out of business. And even steep subsidy cuts to renewables would not reverse the trend.

“Traditional wisdom suggests that steep subsidy cuts can bring the solar build-out under control again,” the Macquarie analysts note. “We disagree, though, as the ever-increasing prices for domestic and commercial customers as well as rapid solar cost declines have brought on the advent of grid parity for German roofs. Thus, solar installations could continue at a torrid pace.”

Here are some key graphs to illustrate its point. Macquarie notes that wholesale prices in Germany have fallen 29 per cent over the last five years, while retail prices have risen 31 per cent – both movements at least partly due to the impact of renewables. But those movements pale in comparison with the dramatic fall in the cost of rooftop solar PV.

(Click the image to see a larger version).

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 8.51.46 AM

Macquarie says rooftop solar generation in Germany currently costs between €0.12kWh and €0.14/kWh (assuming 85 per cent debt financing and 4 per cent interest rate). These compare favourably with retail grid electricity prices of €0.28/kWh (even at just 50 per cent on-site self-consumption). But solar PV can even offer savings at industrial and commercial grid prices which are even lower at €0.11-0.17/kWh.

“Consequently, solar installations could continue at a rapid pace even without subsidies,” Macquarie notes. “Ultimately, this would threaten the role of coal-fired generation as the price setter in wholesale power price formation.”

Macquarie says that these effects seem self-reinforcing and hard to stop, unless there is a total power system overhaul. That, though, is unlikely. “We cannot see political will for such an overhaul. Quite to the contrary, German Environment Minister (Peter) Altmaier proposed in October 2012 to lift the country‟s 2020 renewable energy target to 40 per cent” (and its 2030 target to 80 per cent).

Moreover, in an election year that is likely to see the Social Democrats elected, either in coalition with the Greens or a “grand coalition” with Chancellor Merkel’s party, the pace of renewables expansion is likely to increase.

And as this story we published this week tells us, support in Germany for its “energiewende” (energy transformation) program remains strong. (It would be interesting to see how this corresponds in Australia, because utilities here appear to be simply taking matters into their own hands, by changing tariff structures or refusing and delaying solar connections).

As we highlighted nearly a year ago now, in our story of Why generators are terrified of solar, Macquarie has its own illustrations of what is happening to the energy market. It makes mention of key milestones on May 25, when solar contributed more than 20 GW of capacity into the German grid for the first time – accounting for one-third of peak demand – and on September 14, when wind and solar combined to produce more than 31.5 GW (solar 16.1 GW plus wind 15.4 GW) in the early afternoon.

Macquarie’s examples compare typical days in May and in March – the changes to the price curve are even more dramatic than that highlighted by the Melbourne Energy Institute’s Mike Sandiford in the case of South Australia last week. The loss of the curve represents a loss in revenue.

Here is the example from May:

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 9.12.35 AM

And here is the example for March:

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 9.12.40 AM

Again, the gap between the black and red lines represents lost revenue for generators.

And while the proliferation of renewables is proving to be a painful experience for utilities, it is forcing the energy industry to challenge their traditional baseload/peakload approach to energy supply. The alternative is now viewed – even by the major generator companies – as non-flexible and flexible generation, with the dispatchable energy produced by gas plants, or at a later date storage technologies, filling in the gaps between renewables. Germany is also reportedly about to announce a new tariff to encourage battery storage deployment for solar PV.

Still, the transition period promises to be problematic.

Macquarie does highlight some perverse impacts of this situation – the fact that cleaner gas-fired fuel is being priced out of the market, while lignite – what we know in Australia as brown coal – survives, and that ageing gas-fired generators are not being replaced by state-of-the-art modern plants.

However, it notes this has as much to do with the plunging carbon price in Europe, which has effectively removed the pollution price signal on dirtier fuels in the energy market, as well as the high cost of gas – most of which has to be imported from Russia. It notes that the current cost of new-build gas is nearly 50 per cent above average wholesale prices, and recently announced demand management initiatives, such as load shedding, are removing another major part of the market. That load shedding will result in up to 1,500 MW of demand to be switched off in a matter of seconds, and up to 3,000 MW within15 minutes.

(Australia faces a potentially similar issue because, while it has a carbon price, the main brown coal generators, at least for the moment, have been largely insulated from this by the generous compensation package, and the emergency funds provided by the government. And Australia also faces increasing gas prices).

Macquarie goes as far as to say that the German energy market is “kaput.” “Without radical overhaul, we conclude the German power system is structurally broken,” they say. The analysts note that in the normal course of events, up to 20 GW of conventional capacity would be shut down, but authorities would likely prevent 10 GW to retain structural integrity to the market.

Still, despite the closure of nuclear facilities, Macquarie estimates that production from thermal generators (gas and coal) would likely fall by 40TWh by the end of the decade – a reduction of 10 per cent in current output – as solar (18 GW) and wind (9 GW) continued their capacity additions.

German authorities are currently trying to get their head around a new design for the market, one that rewards not just renewables but provides the right incentive to retain the capacity that is required to usher in that transition.

One radical proposal came from the former Head of the Federal Network Agency, who proposed to temporarily shut off, without recompense, renewable energy sources during times of excessive peak production. But Macquarie said it was difficult to imagine how this would work, as it would be difficult to decide exactly at which times the market is excessively supplied. “Moreover, it would require retroactively changing the subsidies for renewable energy plants, which would presumably not just lead to lawsuits against the German government in international courts, but also weaken general investment confidence into Germany.”

Macquarie Group: Rooftop Solar Is Unstoppable was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook or Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

UBS energy analysts about how rooftop solar PV is heralding an energy revolution, Macquarie notes that many existing fossil fuel generators in Germany are losing money and could go out of business. And even steep subsidy cuts to renewables would not reverse the trend.

“Traditional wisdom suggests that steep subsidy cuts can bring the solar build-out under control again,” the Macquarie analysts note. “We disagree, though, as the ever-increasing prices for domestic and commercial customers as well as rapid solar cost declines have brought on the advent of grid parity for German roofs. Thus, solar installations could continue at a torrid pace.”

Here are some key graphs to illustrate its point. Macquarie notes that wholesale prices in Germany have fallen 29 per cent over the last five years, while retail prices have risen 31 per cent – both movements at least partly due to the impact of renewables. But those movements pale in comparison with the dramatic fall in the cost of rooftop solar PV.

(Click the image to see a larger version).

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 8.51.46 AM

Macquarie says rooftop solar generation in Germany currently costs between €0.12kWh and €0.14/kWh (assuming 85 per cent debt financing and 4 per cent interest rate). These compare favourably with retail grid electricity prices of €0.28/kWh (even at just 50 per cent on-site self-consumption). But solar PV can even offer savings at industrial and commercial grid prices which are even lower at €0.11-0.17/kWh.

“Consequently, solar installations could continue at a rapid pace even without subsidies,” Macquarie notes. “Ultimately, this would threaten the role of coal-fired generation as the price setter in wholesale power price formation.”

Macquarie says that these effects seem self-reinforcing and hard to stop, unless there is a total power system overhaul. That, though, is unlikely. “We cannot see political will for such an overhaul. Quite to the contrary, German Environment Minister (Peter) Altmaier proposed in October 2012 to lift the country‟s 2020 renewable energy target to 40 per cent” (and its 2030 target to 80 per cent).

Moreover, in an election year that is likely to see the Social Democrats elected, either in coalition with the Greens or a “grand coalition” with Chancellor Merkel’s party, the pace of renewables expansion is likely to increase.

And as this story we published this week tells us, support in Germany for its “energiewende” (energy transformation) program remains strong. (It would be interesting to see how this corresponds in Australia, because utilities here appear to be simply taking matters into their own hands, by changing tariff structures or refusing and delaying solar connections).

As we highlighted nearly a year ago now, in our story of Why generators are terrified of solar, Macquarie has its own illustrations of what is happening to the energy market. It makes mention of key milestones on May 25, when solar contributed more than 20 GW of capacity into the German grid for the first time – accounting for one-third of peak demand – and on September 14, when wind and solar combined to produce more than 31.5 GW (solar 16.1 GW plus wind 15.4 GW) in the early afternoon.

Macquarie’s examples compare typical days in May and in March – the changes to the price curve are even more dramatic than that highlighted by the Melbourne Energy Institute’s Mike Sandiford in the case of South Australia last week. The loss of the curve represents a loss in revenue.

Here is the example from May:

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 9.12.35 AM

And here is the example for March:

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 9.12.40 AM

Again, the gap between the black and red lines represents lost revenue for generators.

And while the proliferation of renewables is proving to be a painful experience for utilities, it is forcing the energy industry to challenge their traditional baseload/peakload approach to energy supply. The alternative is now viewed – even by the major generator companies – as non-flexible and flexible generation, with the dispatchable energy produced by gas plants, or at a later date storage technologies, filling in the gaps between renewables. Germany is also reportedly about to announce a new tariff to encourage battery storage deployment for solar PV.

Still, the transition period promises to be problematic.

Macquarie does highlight some perverse impacts of this situation – the fact that cleaner gas-fired fuel is being priced out of the market, while lignite – what we know in Australia as brown coal – survives, and that ageing gas-fired generators are not being replaced by state-of-the-art modern plants.

However, it notes this has as much to do with the plunging carbon price in Europe, which has effectively removed the pollution price signal on dirtier fuels in the energy market, as well as the high cost of gas – most of which has to be imported from Russia. It notes that the current cost of new-build gas is nearly 50 per cent above average wholesale prices, and recently announced demand management initiatives, such as load shedding, are removing another major part of the market. That load shedding will result in up to 1,500 MW of demand to be switched off in a matter of seconds, and up to 3,000 MW within15 minutes.

(Australia faces a potentially similar issue because, while it has a carbon price, the main brown coal generators, at least for the moment, have been largely insulated from this by the generous compensation package, and the emergency funds provided by the government. And Australia also faces increasing gas prices).

Macquarie goes as far as to say that the German energy market is “kaput.” “Without radical overhaul, we conclude the German power system is structurally broken,” they say. The analysts note that in the normal course of events, up to 20 GW of conventional capacity would be shut down, but authorities would likely prevent 10 GW to retain structural integrity to the market.

Still, despite the closure of nuclear facilities, Macquarie estimates that production from thermal generators (gas and coal) would likely fall by 40TWh by the end of the decade – a reduction of 10 per cent in current output – as solar (18 GW) and wind (9 GW) continued their capacity additions.

German authorities are currently trying to get their head around a new design for the market, one that rewards not just renewables but provides the right incentive to retain the capacity that is required to usher in that transition.

One radical proposal came from the former Head of the Federal Network Agency, who proposed to temporarily shut off, without recompense, renewable energy sources during times of excessive peak production. But Macquarie said it was difficult to imagine how this would work, as it would be difficult to decide exactly at which times the market is excessively supplied. “Moreover, it would require retroactively changing the subsidies for renewable energy plants, which would presumably not just lead to lawsuits against the German government in international courts, but also weaken general investment confidence into Germany.”

Macquarie Group: Rooftop Solar Is Unstoppable was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook or Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

" addthis:title="Rooftop Solar Is Unstoppable" addthis:description="

The fundamental transformation of energy markets brought about by the growing incursions of renewables such as wind and solar has been underlined in a new report by the European energy analysts at Macquarie Group, who have concluded that the plunge in costs for rooftop solar PV has fallen to such an extent that its continued rapid deployment may be unstoppable.

In an analysis that broadly reflects the conclusion of UBS energy analysts about how rooftop solar PV is heralding an energy revolution, Macquarie notes that many existing fossil fuel generators in Germany are losing money and could go out of business. And even steep subsidy cuts to renewables would not reverse the trend.

“Traditional wisdom suggests that steep subsidy cuts can bring the solar build-out under control again,” the Macquarie analysts note. “We disagree, though, as the ever-increasing prices for domestic and commercial customers as well as rapid solar cost declines have brought on the advent of grid parity for German roofs. Thus, solar installations could continue at a torrid pace.”

Here are some key graphs to illustrate its point. Macquarie notes that wholesale prices in Germany have fallen 29 per cent over the last five years, while retail prices have risen 31 per cent – both movements at least partly due to the impact of renewables. But those movements pale in comparison with the dramatic fall in the cost of rooftop solar PV.

(Click the image to see a larger version).

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 8.51.46 AM

Macquarie says rooftop solar generation in Germany currently costs between €0.12kWh and €0.14/kWh (assuming 85 per cent debt financing and 4 per cent interest rate). These compare favourably with retail grid electricity prices of €0.28/kWh (even at just 50 per cent on-site self-consumption). But solar PV can even offer savings at industrial and commercial grid prices which are even lower at €0.11-0.17/kWh.

“Consequently, solar installations could continue at a rapid pace even without subsidies,” Macquarie notes. “Ultimately, this would threaten the role of coal-fired generation as the price setter in wholesale power price formation.”

Macquarie says that these effects seem self-reinforcing and hard to stop, unless there is a total power system overhaul. That, though, is unlikely. “We cannot see political will for such an overhaul. Quite to the contrary, German Environment Minister (Peter) Altmaier proposed in October 2012 to lift the country‟s 2020 renewable energy target to 40 per cent” (and its 2030 target to 80 per cent).

Moreover, in an election year that is likely to see the Social Democrats elected, either in coalition with the Greens or a “grand coalition” with Chancellor Merkel’s party, the pace of renewables expansion is likely to increase.

And as this story we published this week tells us, support in Germany for its “energiewende” (energy transformation) program remains strong. (It would be interesting to see how this corresponds in Australia, because utilities here appear to be simply taking matters into their own hands, by changing tariff structures or refusing and delaying solar connections).

As we highlighted nearly a year ago now, in our story of Why generators are terrified of solar, Macquarie has its own illustrations of what is happening to the energy market. It makes mention of key milestones on May 25, when solar contributed more than 20 GW of capacity into the German grid for the first time – accounting for one-third of peak demand – and on September 14, when wind and solar combined to produce more than 31.5 GW (solar 16.1 GW plus wind 15.4 GW) in the early afternoon.

Macquarie’s examples compare typical days in May and in March – the changes to the price curve are even more dramatic than that highlighted by the Melbourne Energy Institute’s Mike Sandiford in the case of South Australia last week. The loss of the curve represents a loss in revenue.

Here is the example from May:

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 9.12.35 AM

And here is the example for March:

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 9.12.40 AM

Again, the gap between the black and red lines represents lost revenue for generators.

And while the proliferation of renewables is proving to be a painful experience for utilities, it is forcing the energy industry to challenge their traditional baseload/peakload approach to energy supply. The alternative is now viewed – even by the major generator companies – as non-flexible and flexible generation, with the dispatchable energy produced by gas plants, or at a later date storage technologies, filling in the gaps between renewables. Germany is also reportedly about to announce a new tariff to encourage battery storage deployment for solar PV.

Still, the transition period promises to be problematic.

Macquarie does highlight some perverse impacts of this situation – the fact that cleaner gas-fired fuel is being priced out of the market, while lignite – what we know in Australia as brown coal – survives, and that ageing gas-fired generators are not being replaced by state-of-the-art modern plants.

However, it notes this has as much to do with the plunging carbon price in Europe, which has effectively removed the pollution price signal on dirtier fuels in the energy market, as well as the high cost of gas – most of which has to be imported from Russia. It notes that the current cost of new-build gas is nearly 50 per cent above average wholesale prices, and recently announced demand management initiatives, such as load shedding, are removing another major part of the market. That load shedding will result in up to 1,500 MW of demand to be switched off in a matter of seconds, and up to 3,000 MW within15 minutes.

(Australia faces a potentially similar issue because, while it has a carbon price, the main brown coal generators, at least for the moment, have been largely insulated from this by the generous compensation package, and the emergency funds provided by the government. And Australia also faces increasing gas prices).

Macquarie goes as far as to say that the German energy market is “kaput.” “Without radical overhaul, we conclude the German power system is structurally broken,” they say. The analysts note that in the normal course of events, up to 20 GW of conventional capacity would be shut down, but authorities would likely prevent 10 GW to retain structural integrity to the market.

Still, despite the closure of nuclear facilities, Macquarie estimates that production from thermal generators (gas and coal) would likely fall by 40TWh by the end of the decade – a reduction of 10 per cent in current output – as solar (18 GW) and wind (9 GW) continued their capacity additions.

German authorities are currently trying to get their head around a new design for the market, one that rewards not just renewables but provides the right incentive to retain the capacity that is required to usher in that transition.

One radical proposal came from the former Head of the Federal Network Agency, who proposed to temporarily shut off, without recompense, renewable energy sources during times of excessive peak production. But Macquarie said it was difficult to imagine how this would work, as it would be difficult to decide exactly at which times the market is excessively supplied. “Moreover, it would require retroactively changing the subsidies for renewable energy plants, which would presumably not just lead to lawsuits against the German government in international courts, but also weaken general investment confidence into Germany.”

Macquarie Group: Rooftop Solar Is Unstoppable was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook or Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

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100% Renewables Could Be Closer Than We Think

February 22, 2013 at 12:15 am
blogs.gosolar.la -
Solar panel, wind turbine & globe via Shutterstock

Solar panel, wind turbine & globe via Shutterstock

The stunning set of data, cost profiles and market analysis produced in the first few weeks of calendar 2013 have confirmed what many had long suspected – that the global energy markets are changing faster than anyone had thought possible.

The implications for the incumbent energy industry – be they generators, network operators or retailers – couldn’t be more significant. The business models that supported the ageing infrastructure are broken, and if they can’t adapt to the new environment, they may soon be out of business. The idea of a rapid change to a largely renewable energy grid no longer seems aspirational, it could be inevitable.

Consider what we have learned this month:

- The price of wind energy (and in some isolated cases solar PV), is already cheaper than coal and gas in Australia. This gap is likely to widen considerably in the coming decade.

- By the time new baseload capacity is required in 10 years time, other technologies, including solar thermal with storage, and concentrated solar PV, will also be cheaper than coal and gas. Marine energy and geothermal could be close to parity.

- But not only do we have “grid parity” at the utility level, we also have socket parity, which means that homeowners and businesses can lower their cost of electricity by installing solar panels on their roof.

- The growing impact of large scale renewables, the self consumption market driven by rooftop solar and battery storage, and the impact of energy efficiency schemes, is reshaping the profile of the energy market and the dynamics of the industry. Sometimes in the most dramatic way. Coal and gas fired generators are getting priced out of the market.

As investment bank UBS recently noted, we are facing a “solar revolution” in the energy industry, and another is on the way with battery storage. As we suggested last year, the change is so profound that existing business models appear broken. According to Macquarie Bank, the German energy model is already “kaput”.

As we have seen in Australia, the increase in renewables is pushing down wholesale electricity prices, forcing the closure or mothballing of 3,000 MW of fossil fuel capacity. In Germany, the closure rate is so rapid that the electricity authority has had to step in to slow them down.

The more retailers and network operators seek to recoup their investment in the face of lower demand, the more customers will be tempted to look after their own energy needs. Even halting all subsidies for rooftop solar will not stop it, said Macquarie. “The ever-increasing (grid) prices for domestic and commercial customers as well as rapid solar cost declines have brought on the advent of grid parity for German roofs. Thus, solar installations could continue at a torrid pace,” it notes. The same applies for Australia.

So what does this mean?

As Michael Liebrich, the head of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, suggested: “The fact that wind power is now cheaper than coal and gas in a country with some of the world’s best fossil fuel resources shows that clean energy is a game changer which promises to turn the economics of power systems on its head.”

Consider the situation in Australia. The utilities and the energy market operator have told us that no new baseload is needed until 2020. Now we know that when new capacity is required, technologies such as large-scale solar PV and solar thermal with storage (dubbed as better than baseload) will likely be cheaper, along with wind.

Coal-fired power stations will not get built, for reputational and economic reasons, and gas – the much touted transition fuel – may also not get a look in. “Costs are just falling so quickly and the cost of fossil fuel are so much higher than public perception,” said Kobad Bhavnagri, head of clean energy research for BNEF in Australia. ”We could leapfrog gas as transition fuel.”

Bhavnagri said that by 2020 the “world could look quite different.” The market operator and system will be more experienced and adept at handling intermittency. “The case for gas is not as strong as people assumed a few years ago.”

The upshot of that analysis is that the plants we will be building in the 2020s will be – because they are the cheapest options – large-scale solar with storage and other dispatchable renewables. The economic case for existing fossil fuel generators will be further undermined.

This explains why the fossil fuel industry in Germany, and in Australia, have been trying to halt the expanse of renewables. The primary policy goal of generators and fossil fuel industry for the past decade or more has been one of delay – to push back the build up of renewables long enough to extract maximum value from their existing assets, and even to create space so they can build more assets. The extractive industries have the same, simple plan.

All the major Australian utilities made clear in their submissions to the Climate Change Commission that allowing the renewable energy target to stand – and more wind farms and large-scale solar PV to be built – would reduce the profits of their generators, quite dramatically. Yet diluting that target would allow them to build more gas-fired generation.

This is also why the utilities have also argued against the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, because it is designed to help usher in those technologies such as solar thermal and ocean energy that will be competitive in a decade’s time. But they can’t be competitive if none are built, and installation and manufacturing costs are reduced.

Many European markets are now at critical junctures with high penetration of wind and solar. This includes Germany, Italy, Denmark, Spain and Portugal. Australia, should it maintain its current renewable energy target, will follow soon enough. Germany, while reducing subsidies, is still increasing its renewables targets – 40 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2030.

Its biggest challenge is to figure out how to redefine the market rules so that it can provide enough economic incentive to prevent too many closures of fossil fuel plants, and to encourage existing gas to stay open rather than coal. It needs these gas plants to assist with the transition.

But it is instructive to see how the big utilities are responding. In Germany, also in an election year, they are faced with a government which is absolutely committed to its targets, and an opposition that will likely accelerate it. In Australia, the utilities appear to have the alternative government singing from its own song book, and still stuck to the outdated notion that renewables are expensive and intermittent, and therefore of little use.

As frustrating as the position of the utilities and the network operators is, they will argue that they are acting in the interests of shareholders. But given the analysis produced by the likes of UBS, HSBC, and Macquarie in the past few weeks, long-term investors such as asset managers may well be wondering how these executives are positioning their company for the long-term future, rather than short-term returns.

Again, the situation in Germany is instructive. Its biggest generation company, E.ON, has fought ferociously against the government’s nuclear phase-out and the pace of the rollout of renewables. Now it concedes its gambit is lost, and so its strategy for the future is simply to transform itself towards a generator focusing on distributed energy and renewables as quickly as it can.

As Rob Passey, from the UNSW, commented on our article on the UBS report, the network operators would be best served by embracing the new technologies rather than fighting against them. “It seems that the only way network operators can remain solvent over the longer term is for them to actively participate in this market themselves,” he said.

The sooner all Australian generators and utilities come to the same conclusion, the better for everyone – shareholders, consumers, and citizens. The question should not be how quickly we can move to 100 per cent renewables, but to ensure we don’t hang on to antiquated policies and business practices designed only to slow it down.

100% Renewables Could Be Closer Than We Think was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook or Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

The stunning set of data, cost profiles and market analysis produced in the first few weeks of calendar 2013 have confirmed what many had long suspected – that the global energy markets are changing faster than anyone had thought possible.

The implications for the incumbent energy industry – be they generators, network operators or retailers – couldn’t be more significant. The business models that supported the ageing infrastructure are broken, and if they can’t adapt to the new environment, they may soon be out of business. The idea of a rapid change to a largely renewable energy grid no longer seems aspirational, it could be inevitable.

Consider what we have learned this month:

- The price of wind energy (and in some isolated cases solar PV), is already cheaper than coal and gas in Australia. This gap is likely to widen considerably in the coming decade.

- By the time new baseload capacity is required in 10 years time, other technologies, including solar thermal with storage, and concentrated solar PV, will also be cheaper than coal and gas. Marine energy and geothermal could be close to parity.

- But not only do we have “grid parity” at the utility level, we also have socket parity, which means that homeowners and businesses can lower their cost of electricity by installing solar panels on their roof.

- The growing impact of large scale renewables, the self consumption market driven by rooftop solar and battery storage, and the impact of energy efficiency schemes, is reshaping the profile of the energy market and the dynamics of the industry. Sometimes in the most dramatic way. Coal and gas fired generators are getting priced out of the market.

As investment bank UBS recently noted, we are facing a “solar revolution” in the energy industry, and another is on the way with battery storage. As we suggested last year, the change is so profound that existing business models appear broken. According to Macquarie Bank, the German energy model is already “kaput”.

As we have seen in Australia, the increase in renewables is pushing down wholesale electricity prices, forcing the closure or mothballing of 3,000 MW of fossil fuel capacity. In Germany, the closure rate is so rapid that the electricity authority has had to step in to slow them down.

The more retailers and network operators seek to recoup their investment in the face of lower demand, the more customers will be tempted to look after their own energy needs. Even halting all subsidies for rooftop solar will not stop it, said Macquarie. “The ever-increasing (grid) prices for domestic and commercial customers as well as rapid solar cost declines have brought on the advent of grid parity for German roofs. Thus, solar installations could continue at a torrid pace,” it notes. The same applies for Australia.

So what does this mean?

As Michael Liebrich, the head of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, suggested: “The fact that wind power is now cheaper than coal and gas in a country with some of the world’s best fossil fuel resources shows that clean energy is a game changer which promises to turn the economics of power systems on its head.”

Consider the situation in Australia. The utilities and the energy market operator have told us that no new baseload is needed until 2020. Now we know that when new capacity is required, technologies such as large-scale solar PV and solar thermal with storage (dubbed as better than baseload) will likely be cheaper, along with wind.

Coal-fired power stations will not get built, for reputational and economic reasons, and gas – the much touted transition fuel – may also not get a look in. “Costs are just falling so quickly and the cost of fossil fuel are so much higher than public perception,” said Kobad Bhavnagri, head of clean energy research for BNEF in Australia. ”We could leapfrog gas as transition fuel.”

Bhavnagri said that by 2020 the “world could look quite different.” The market operator and system will be more experienced and adept at handling intermittency. “The case for gas is not as strong as people assumed a few years ago.”

The upshot of that analysis is that the plants we will be building in the 2020s will be – because they are the cheapest options – large-scale solar with storage and other dispatchable renewables. The economic case for existing fossil fuel generators will be further undermined.

This explains why the fossil fuel industry in Germany, and in Australia, have been trying to halt the expanse of renewables. The primary policy goal of generators and fossil fuel industry for the past decade or more has been one of delay – to push back the build up of renewables long enough to extract maximum value from their existing assets, and even to create space so they can build more assets. The extractive industries have the same, simple plan.

All the major Australian utilities made clear in their submissions to the Climate Change Commission that allowing the renewable energy target to stand – and more wind farms and large-scale solar PV to be built – would reduce the profits of their generators, quite dramatically. Yet diluting that target would allow them to build more gas-fired generation.

This is also why the utilities have also argued against the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, because it is designed to help usher in those technologies such as solar thermal and ocean energy that will be competitive in a decade’s time. But they can’t be competitive if none are built, and installation and manufacturing costs are reduced.

Many European markets are now at critical junctures with high penetration of wind and solar. This includes Germany, Italy, Denmark, Spain and Portugal. Australia, should it maintain its current renewable energy target, will follow soon enough. Germany, while reducing subsidies, is still increasing its renewables targets – 40 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2030.

Its biggest challenge is to figure out how to redefine the market rules so that it can provide enough economic incentive to prevent too many closures of fossil fuel plants, and to encourage existing gas to stay open rather than coal. It needs these gas plants to assist with the transition.

But it is instructive to see how the big utilities are responding. In Germany, also in an election year, they are faced with a government which is absolutely committed to its targets, and an opposition that will likely accelerate it. In Australia, the utilities appear to have the alternative government singing from its own song book, and still stuck to the outdated notion that renewables are expensive and intermittent, and therefore of little use.

As frustrating as the position of the utilities and the network operators is, they will argue that they are acting in the interests of shareholders. But given the analysis produced by the likes of UBS, HSBC, and Macquarie in the past few weeks, long-term investors such as asset managers may well be wondering how these executives are positioning their company for the long-term future, rather than short-term returns.

Again, the situation in Germany is instructive. Its biggest generation company, E.ON, has fought ferociously against the government’s nuclear phase-out and the pace of the rollout of renewables. Now it concedes its gambit is lost, and so its strategy for the future is simply to transform itself towards a generator focusing on distributed energy and renewables as quickly as it can.

As Rob Passey, from the UNSW, commented on our article on the UBS report, the network operators would be best served by embracing the new technologies rather than fighting against them. “It seems that the only way network operators can remain solvent over the longer term is for them to actively participate in this market themselves,” he said.

The sooner all Australian generators and utilities come to the same conclusion, the better for everyone – shareholders, consumers, and citizens. The question should not be how quickly we can move to 100 per cent renewables, but to ensure we don’t hang on to antiquated policies and business practices designed only to slow it down.

100% Renewables Could Be Closer Than We Think was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook or Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

" addthis:title="100% Renewables Could Be Closer Than We Think" addthis:description="
Solar panel, wind turbine & globe via Shutterstock

Solar panel, wind turbine & globe via Shutterstock

The stunning set of data, cost profiles and market analysis produced in the first few weeks of calendar 2013 have confirmed what many had long suspected – that the global energy markets are changing faster than anyone had thought possible.

The implications for the incumbent energy industry – be they generators, network operators or retailers – couldn’t be more significant. The business models that supported the ageing infrastructure are broken, and if they can’t adapt to the new environment, they may soon be out of business. The idea of a rapid change to a largely renewable energy grid no longer seems aspirational, it could be inevitable.

Consider what we have learned this month:

- The price of wind energy (and in some isolated cases solar PV), is already cheaper than coal and gas in Australia. This gap is likely to widen considerably in the coming decade.

- By the time new baseload capacity is required in 10 years time, other technologies, including solar thermal with storage, and concentrated solar PV, will also be cheaper than coal and gas. Marine energy and geothermal could be close to parity.

- But not only do we have “grid parity” at the utility level, we also have socket parity, which means that homeowners and businesses can lower their cost of electricity by installing solar panels on their roof.

- The growing impact of large scale renewables, the self consumption market driven by rooftop solar and battery storage, and the impact of energy efficiency schemes, is reshaping the profile of the energy market and the dynamics of the industry. Sometimes in the most dramatic way. Coal and gas fired generators are getting priced out of the market.

As investment bank UBS recently noted, we are facing a “solar revolution” in the energy industry, and another is on the way with battery storage. As we suggested last year, the change is so profound that existing business models appear broken. According to Macquarie Bank, the German energy model is already “kaput”.

As we have seen in Australia, the increase in renewables is pushing down wholesale electricity prices, forcing the closure or mothballing of 3,000 MW of fossil fuel capacity. In Germany, the closure rate is so rapid that the electricity authority has had to step in to slow them down.

The more retailers and network operators seek to recoup their investment in the face of lower demand, the more customers will be tempted to look after their own energy needs. Even halting all subsidies for rooftop solar will not stop it, said Macquarie. “The ever-increasing (grid) prices for domestic and commercial customers as well as rapid solar cost declines have brought on the advent of grid parity for German roofs. Thus, solar installations could continue at a torrid pace,” it notes. The same applies for Australia.

So what does this mean?

As Michael Liebrich, the head of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, suggested: “The fact that wind power is now cheaper than coal and gas in a country with some of the world’s best fossil fuel resources shows that clean energy is a game changer which promises to turn the economics of power systems on its head.”

Consider the situation in Australia. The utilities and the energy market operator have told us that no new baseload is needed until 2020. Now we know that when new capacity is required, technologies such as large-scale solar PV and solar thermal with storage (dubbed as better than baseload) will likely be cheaper, along with wind.

Coal-fired power stations will not get built, for reputational and economic reasons, and gas – the much touted transition fuel – may also not get a look in. “Costs are just falling so quickly and the cost of fossil fuel are so much higher than public perception,” said Kobad Bhavnagri, head of clean energy research for BNEF in Australia. ”We could leapfrog gas as transition fuel.”

Bhavnagri said that by 2020 the “world could look quite different.” The market operator and system will be more experienced and adept at handling intermittency. “The case for gas is not as strong as people assumed a few years ago.”

The upshot of that analysis is that the plants we will be building in the 2020s will be – because they are the cheapest options – large-scale solar with storage and other dispatchable renewables. The economic case for existing fossil fuel generators will be further undermined.

This explains why the fossil fuel industry in Germany, and in Australia, have been trying to halt the expanse of renewables. The primary policy goal of generators and fossil fuel industry for the past decade or more has been one of delay – to push back the build up of renewables long enough to extract maximum value from their existing assets, and even to create space so they can build more assets. The extractive industries have the same, simple plan.

All the major Australian utilities made clear in their submissions to the Climate Change Commission that allowing the renewable energy target to stand – and more wind farms and large-scale solar PV to be built – would reduce the profits of their generators, quite dramatically. Yet diluting that target would allow them to build more gas-fired generation.

This is also why the utilities have also argued against the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, because it is designed to help usher in those technologies such as solar thermal and ocean energy that will be competitive in a decade’s time. But they can’t be competitive if none are built, and installation and manufacturing costs are reduced.

Many European markets are now at critical junctures with high penetration of wind and solar. This includes Germany, Italy, Denmark, Spain and Portugal. Australia, should it maintain its current renewable energy target, will follow soon enough. Germany, while reducing subsidies, is still increasing its renewables targets – 40 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2030.

Its biggest challenge is to figure out how to redefine the market rules so that it can provide enough economic incentive to prevent too many closures of fossil fuel plants, and to encourage existing gas to stay open rather than coal. It needs these gas plants to assist with the transition.

But it is instructive to see how the big utilities are responding. In Germany, also in an election year, they are faced with a government which is absolutely committed to its targets, and an opposition that will likely accelerate it. In Australia, the utilities appear to have the alternative government singing from its own song book, and still stuck to the outdated notion that renewables are expensive and intermittent, and therefore of little use.

As frustrating as the position of the utilities and the network operators is, they will argue that they are acting in the interests of shareholders. But given the analysis produced by the likes of UBS, HSBC, and Macquarie in the past few weeks, long-term investors such as asset managers may well be wondering how these executives are positioning their company for the long-term future, rather than short-term returns.

Again, the situation in Germany is instructive. Its biggest generation company, E.ON, has fought ferociously against the government’s nuclear phase-out and the pace of the rollout of renewables. Now it concedes its gambit is lost, and so its strategy for the future is simply to transform itself towards a generator focusing on distributed energy and renewables as quickly as it can.

As Rob Passey, from the UNSW, commented on our article on the UBS report, the network operators would be best served by embracing the new technologies rather than fighting against them. “It seems that the only way network operators can remain solvent over the longer term is for them to actively participate in this market themselves,” he said.

The sooner all Australian generators and utilities come to the same conclusion, the better for everyone – shareholders, consumers, and citizens. The question should not be how quickly we can move to 100 per cent renewables, but to ensure we don’t hang on to antiquated policies and business practices designed only to slow it down.

100% Renewables Could Be Closer Than We Think was originally published on: CleanTechnica. To read more from CleanTechnica, join over 30,000 others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook or Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

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